Muy recientemente, en estos días los grandes medios de comunicación han abordado a coro el tema de la DEUDA MUNDIAL. Basta buscar en internet y aparecen el País y otros periódicos con un titular ¿Crisis de deuda mundial a la vista? O el Confidencial con este otro: ¿Está el mundo inmerso en una enorme espiral de deuda? Un denominador común de los varios enfoques con que se aborda este asunto es el partir de que esa deuda existe. Vamos, que efectivamente se deben esos miles de Billones que sean. Porque las cifras que se barajan difícilmente caben en cabeza humana, cual distancias galácticas que aunque se repiten y reiteran cuesta, ¡que dijo cuesta” es imposible quedarse con ellas de una vez para otra.
La primera pregunta es si esos miles de billones existen realmente. Porque si existen es evidente que se les debe a unas poquitas personas y ello fundamentaría el hecho de que esas poquitas personas son miles de billones ricas. Y consecuentemente el resto de la humanidad es miles de billones pobre.
¿Cómo es posible deber tanto? A pesar de la inmensa morosidad que al parecer tienen a partes iguales empresas y estados y la más pequeña, pero abultada parte de, las economías familiares. ¿Cómo es posible conseguir que sigan “prestando”? Más aún cuando los países más ricos, incluido el gigante Chino, son los más morosos del mundo.
Por otro lado las monedas en las que se soportan las inmensas deudas mundiales son básicamente cuatro: Euro, Dólar, Libra y Yuan. Y resulta que una inmensa parte de ellas están “inmovilizadas” en enormes depósitos de reserva de divisas. Según informe de la Organización Mundial del Comercio el conjunto de las reservas internacionales pasaron de los 2,5 billones de dólares USA, a los casi 4 billones dólares en 2020. Otras fuentes como el FMI (Fondo Monetario Internacional) a mediados de 2018, aportaba datos contrastados con la información facilitada por los bancos centrales. Encabeza el ranking de los 10 países con mayores depósitos, China con 3,162 billones de dólares, a los que hay que añadir 437.500 millones de dólares de Hong Kong, seguido de Japón con 1,205 billones de dólares y entre los siguientes ocho países Suiza, Arabia Saudí, India, Corea del Sur, Brasil, Rusia y Singapur.
Basta hacer un ejercicio aritmético de suma y las cantidades que se obtienen son de dimensiones imposibles de justificar y menos soportar en moneda, ya que no hay existencia de las mismas sumando la totalidad de los países del mundo.
¿Cómo es posible entonces que se ofrezcan estas enormes cantidades de deuda? Una posible explicación se encuentra en la digitalización de las finanzas. En el mundo real, en el cotidiano discurrir de las operaciones de compra y venta la inmensa mayoría de estas son “virtuales”. Hay quien a base de pagar con tarjeta o bizum, y tener domiciliados los recibos de los gastos a los que debe hacer frente puede vivir sin llevar un euro en el bolsillo. Muchísimas personas, sobre todo jóvenes, confían en que los sistemas digitales y on-line nunca fallen y esto explica, tarjetas, móviles, relojes digitales, para hacer frente a los pagos por pequeños que estos sean. Esta digitalización financiera soporta cualquier número que se ponga y como la morosidad genera “intereses”, y las deudas se subastan, se traspasan, se venden entre acreedores (Que tiene derecho a pedir que se cumpla una obligación, especialmente que se le pague una deuda).
A partir de ese momento se separan las economías reales de las digitales y esto explica que las cantidades de deuda comiencen a no caber en cabeza humana. Otro aspecto que permite este dislate económico financiero es la autonomía de los Bancos Centrales de las grandes potencias mundiales para “fabricar dineros”. Moneda que no tiene respaldo alguno en las producciones mundiales, ni en los incrementos de los productos brutos de cada uno de ellos, sino que la “confianza” de los mercados fija el valor “virtual” de las grandes monedas. Por eso la denominada DEUDA MUNDIAL es la resultante de un conjunto de acuerdos entre partes y decisiones consensuadas por quienes controlan parte de los grandes mercados financieros, que viven precisamente de irla aumentando “digitalmente”.
Tiene bastante sentido que esta alocada carrera de incrementos de deuda se frene en seco. ¿Será posible? Históricamente países a los que se les ha endosado deudas multimillonarias, con ocasión de tratados llamados de “paz”, han acabado condonándose. ¿Por qué son se llega a un acuerdo mundial y se condonan todas las deudas? Un aviso para quienes siguen hablando de soberanía de los Estados, cuando hace mucho tiempo esta fue subastada y enterrada. A cada persona le quedan de momento dos soberanías: La del monedero, pudiendo ejercer su capacidad decisoria sobre algunos aspectos de su actividad consumidora y la del “voto”, aunque sea para que salgan elegidos quienes tendrán que hacer lo que les manden los “mercados”. ¡O no!
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